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'<p>
2014年大宗商品的投資收益出現嚴重分化，從年度整體情況來看，咖啡價格出現大幅上漲，而原油價格在上半年創出新高之後，下半年則開啓大幅下調過程。截至12月24日，原油價格與年初價格相比，跌幅超過40%。</p>
<p style="text-align: center; ">
<img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/141228/3-14122QGTJR.jpg" style="width: 400px; height: 300px; " /></p>
<p>
在整個大宗商品市場，原油領跌，而棉花、燃料油、鐵礦石的跌幅同樣很大，漲幅較大的品種則是咖啡、鉑金、活牲口和原糖。</p>
<p>
無論是原油還是咖啡，供需關係是影響大宗商品價格的關鍵因素。今年以來，全球最大的咖啡豆出口地巴西受到數十年罕見的乾旱影響，多家機構預計巴西咖啡豆收成將創三年新低，供給下降導致咖啡價格隨之高漲，成爲大宗商品之中少有的高回報投資的品種。</p>
<p>
今年6月底以來，原油價格創出新高之後，即開啓下跌過程。而石油輸出國組織(OPEC)在11月底的不減產並將維持3000萬桶/日的原油產量的決定加速了原油市場的波動，使原油價格在短短半個月的時間內跌幅超過20%。</p>
<p>
除了OPEC不減產以及美元走強之外，促使國際油價跌破60美元的原因還包括美國頁岩油產量的大幅增加、產油國之間的價格戰、全球原油需求疲軟以及地緣政治風險退散等。</p>
<p>
OPEC拒絕減產的衝擊加速資金從原油市場流出。據機構測算，從6月份至今，國際原油市場資金流出量接近200億美元。</p>
<p>
全球經濟的放緩導致對原油的需求下滑，也不斷施壓原油價格。國際能源署(IEA)近日在其月度石油市場報告中將2015年全球石油日需求增量下調23萬桶/日至90萬桶/日，這也是IEA五個月來第四次下調2015年展望。</p>
<p>
2015年原油價格似乎依然不樂觀。IEA認爲，OPEC國家的石油庫存到2015年中可能達到創紀錄的水平，而OPEC以外國家的原油產量將增加130萬桶/天，至5780萬桶/天。</p>
<p>
作爲大宗商品的最後堡壘，原油市場的下跌直接帶動了衆多大宗商品價格的下跌。黃金、鐵礦石和基本金屬等商品價格近期均出現下滑趨勢。包括食品、能源、金屬等19種大宗商品在內的湯森路透/核心大宗商品CRB指數從6月底至今跌幅明顯。</p>
<p>
不過，原油的底部似乎正在形成，法興銀行預計，2015年布倫特原油均價爲70美元/桶。</p>
<p>
與此同時，美國商務部本週二公佈的數據顯示，美國三季度GDP終值年化季率增長5.0%，好於預期的增長4.3%，並創下11年來最佳，前值增長3.9%。</p>
<p>
美國數據公佈後，美元指數強勢上漲，並迅速突破90，美元的強勢上漲也引發了市場對於以美元計價的大宗商品價格的擔憂。</p>
<p>
就貴金屬市場而言，強勁的美國數據刺激美國股市大漲，但黃金和白銀價格則持續走低，基本金屬銅、鎳等均持續走軟。就貴金屬今年以來的表現而言，在經歷了2013年的持續大跌之後，2014年的黃金價格不溫不火，年末價格較年初基本持平。</p>
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